Artificial Intelligence – Possible? Yes. Probable? Yes. In our Lifetime? Probably Not.

It has been a number of months since I’ve started off one of my articles with a quote. Today – I go back to my roots with the following quote:
“I am putting myself to the fullest possible use, which is all I think that any conscious entity can ever hope to do.”

I’m curious as to which of my audience recognizes this quote. I’m not sure if the most recognition would be from those of a certain generation – or perhaps those who appreciate particular genres of entertainment.

Regardless, this quote is from a movie – too be specific “2001 – A Space Odyssey” and it is muttered by “no-one” other than HAL-9000 – the onboard computer.
For the past few weeks, I’ve been pondering what to write this month. I knew that I wanted to write about “Artificial Intelligence” for lack of a better word. Once I read this quote, one thing immediately came to mind.

I think that there is a grandiose notion that eventually technology will evolve to the extent where it will become a form of a sentient being. Perhaps one day, technology will evolve (evolve?) to such an extent, but I don’t think that this will be in our lifetime, perhaps not even in the lifetime of our children, either.
This may be heresy to suggest, and there’s a good chance that I could be totally wrong. As much as technology has evolved over the last 20 years, I certainly don’t see any semblance of it pushing the envelope in terms of this level of sophistication.

Getting back to the quote from Hal – I’m most interested in the term “conscious entity”. I think that most people would consider that to be a relatively decent definition of “life”. Merriam-Webster gives a couple of interesting definitions:
1 : perceiving, apprehending, or noticing with a degree of controlled thought or observation
2: capable of or marked by thought, will, design, or perception
Can technology – in any form be considered of being self-aware? I don’t think so – not through any evidence that I have ever heard of or seen. I think of another movie from many years ago, “Demon Seed”. In this movie, Proteus (the computer) is clearly self-aware and does whatever is in its power to prevent being shut down.
If this is indeed one example of how a computer could be considered to be self-aware (and therefore be considered “conscious”), then I think that it’s quite apparent that we are many decades away from developing this type of sophistication.

If it is theoretically possible to build a machine that is self-aware, then I think that the first fundamental problem is that the technology as we know it is nowhere near sophisticated enough, quick enough or has sufficient capacity to host and run a series of programs that would define the computers “soul”.

Let’s take the last problem – that of capacity. How much data could the human mind hold. The answer itself is actually the whole root of the problem. The answer is that no-one really knows how much information the human brain can hold. One researcher from Syracuse University has speculated that the human mind can hold perhaps in the range of 500-1000 terabytes. One terabyte is 1,000 gigabytes, so if I consider that this notebook that I’m using has a 500gb hard disk, then the mind holds more than 1,000 times the capacity that I am working with now.

However, this leads to an interesting point, this memory requirement is what is required to store as much data as is in my mind. This does not take into consideration the extraordinarily complex program code that would need to be in the computer to process and analyze this data. Let’s say for the sake of argument that we’d need an addition 500-1000tb for the program itself.

The biggest argument against the possibility of there being sentient beings in anything but the distant future is that there is so much that we don’t understand about the human mind. There are numerous mysteries as it involves how data is processed, how decisions are made, how judgements are evaluated and how to analyze goals.

It doesn’t matter how good of a software designer or developer I am, if I don’t have a thorough and intimate knowledge of exactly how the mind works, then I can’t be expected to be able to write software that contains these skills.

Chasing the Carrot of Technology

During my years in the Information Technology sector, I have seen the development of the technology from it’s infancy through to its current state. What never ceases to amaze me is that we are continually chasing the tail of technology – tantalized by its promise, seduced by its gleam and potential.

More often than not, as we purchase new computers and peripherals, it delivers and satisfies during the “honeymoon period”, but invariably within years or even months, we become accustomed to what is on our desktop. This leads to dissatisfaction and the increased drool factor when the newest wave of technology (that we don’t have) is introduced.

Case in point, during my very early years of software development, I worked remotely. I wrote software at home and used a 300 baud modem to transmit the software to my colleague at a rate of approximately 80 characters per second. This innovation in technology seemed wondrous compared to having to pack up the software on a disk and physically meet to handover each version.

However, the novelty of transmitting applications at this speed quickly transmogrified into tedium with each release – sometimes as many as 2 or 3 times a day as we went through a development/transmit/test/fix/retransmit cycle. I do remember clearly when my colleague bit the bullet on a “new” 2400 baud modem. Having a throughput of 2400 baud effectively reduced by 4 times the amount of time it took to transmit.

There are circumstances such as this where the improvement in the technology has had measurable benefits. What would take an hour to transmit now would only take 15 minutes and when confronted with perhaps 10 or 12 development cycles, there was direct benefit.

As time went on, modem speeds increased, from 2400 baud to 4800, to 9600 to 14,400. Today, the bare minimum access speed would be perhaps 2mbps (the equivalent of 2,000,000 baud). Realistically though, this speed would only be acceptable for general surfing and many would find it too slow when listening to streaming music, downloading or watching video clips online.

I was amused recently when watching TV and seeing a commercial for software that claims to “fix the speed of your computer” – even for new computers. When watching this commercial, it caused me to wonder what it is about this technology that drives us to need faster and faster – that feeds into this never-ending instant gratification cycle.

The same principle applies to hard disk space. When I purchased the computer that I am writing this article on, I was convinced that I would never come close to filling it up. However, I was dismayed when I received notification that I am down to my last 10% of hard disk space.
I humbly submit what I will refer to “McCallion’s Rule of Technology” and it is…

Technology will fulfill your need up until one day before it is delivered to your desktop at which point in time it will become obsolete.

I will be the first to admit that I’m just as prone to these technological excesses. Evidence this by the multitude of computers that I have that is sitting around collecting dust due to the fact that can no longer keep up with my needs.

I think that part of the problem with computer technology is that an increase in technology breeds innovation in the software as it is made more sophisticated based on the increased capacity. This in turn uses more of the computer’s resources which affect performance and the whole cycle starts again.

I doubt if there is actual collusion between the hardware folks who give us this added capacity and the software people that seemingly chew it all right up, but it does make one wonder. How often are we going to be on this merry-go-round of technology – reaching for that horse in front of us, but never making any progress?

I look at my Mom who is the perfect antithesis to this phenomenon. I purchased a computer for her perhaps ten years ago and for the most part, she is happy to use the Internet (when it works!) and do a little word processing. I would find it hard to justify her replacing her computer unless it broke. Although the Internet is probably a bit slow from time to time – it generally seems to meet her needs.

I sometimes feel like the donkey and the technology is the carrot being dangled in front of me. Although I get no closed to it, it doesn’t stop me from trying. At what point do I say enough is enough and just be happy with the tools that I do have!

Quick tip for this issue: There are a number of keyboard shortcuts that can be used in Microsoft Windows. This page on the Microsoft support website lists them: http://support.microsoft.com/kb/126449

Term for this issue: USB is an acronym for Universal Serial Bus. It has been developed as a standard interface to connect peripherals to your computer.

Website for this issue: For those of us that have Hotmail/MSN accounts, Microsoft now has an online repository, or briefcase, where we can store our files online. http://workspace.office.live.com. Keep in mind that for security/viral issues they do limit the file types that can be stored online. Not only can these files be stored online but if you have Microsoft Office, they can also be edited online as well – saving the need to download, edit and upload.

The Myth of Convergence: Too Much Sizzle - Not Enough Steak

The term convergence refers to the integration of multiple functions into one device or application. There seems to be an ever increasing move to convergence, but I'm yet to be convinced that how convergence is integrated into a technology is a worthwhile thing.

I think that the idea of convergence is a good thing - the thought that we can have one device that can perform multiple functions, but I am of the opinion that far too often, convergence is driven by marketing and sales and the true potential benefits of convergence are not realized as these products are converged for pure marketing purposes.

My first exposures to convergence was many years ago when (and here I go dating myself again!) VCRs integrated into TV consoles. I guess that the general premise was that the average consumer would save money by purchasing one device instead of two. Although this premise may look good in theory, the reality is that if one of the devices (i.e., the VCR) breaks, then the entire unit needs to be replaced. In addition, having convergent devices limits one's ability to keep up with the technology. As 4 head/stereo VCRs were being introduced into the marketplace, one had little choice in terms of upgrading the VCR if it was physically part of the console itself.

In terms of the software world, we seem to be a little luckier in terms of not being stuck with convergence. However, many years ago, convergence was attempted. In the early days of personal computers before the advent of Microsoft Windows, there was no multi-tasking. If you were working on a spreadsheet and needed to quickly lookup a customer address from the corporate database, you'd have to save the changes, exit the spreadsheet, load the database, located the customer record and manually save the information required. Next, you'd have to reload the spreadsheet and enter in the appropriate changes! The first attempts at software convergence was with a package called Lotus Symphony. Symphony was based on a Lotus 1-2-3 spreadsheet but it had a rudimentary word processor, database and communications package built into it.

Certainly, this is one example where the concept of convergence saved significant amounts of time and money, but the downside to Lotus Symphony was that the "add-on" applications had very minimal functionality.

Fortunately, with the multi-tasking of the Microsoft Windows and Mac Interfaces, it's now matter of fact to have multiple applications open and being able to link between them to extract information or to run queries.

My biggest pet peeve with convergence is that the functionality that is delivered is typically substandard and virtually renders the function next to useless. My Samsung Instinct cell phone is a good phone. I have no issues or concerns with using it for it's primary purpose. However, it teases me with the promise of a built-in camera and camcorder. The grim reality is that these two functions do not perform to task. I've all but given up the use of my cell phone as a camera as it has poor resolution, very limited zoom capability and the shutter speed is so slow that I more often than not end up with a big blur (probably appropriate for capturing pictures of Bigfoot!). I recently went out and bought a proper digital camera and I have no qualms about carrying around a cell phone, iPod and camera. That having been said, I'd be more than thrilled if there were one device which came close to providing the functionality of the stand-alone devices.
There may be those that argue that it can't hurt to have a bare basic camera, MP3 player & camcorder and to an extent, I would concede their point. However, I would wager that there are a significant number of cell phones out there that have cameras that are not used. I'd be a lot less concerned with convergence if we - the consumers - were given the choice if we wanted single function of multiple function devices and save the inherent cost of having a camera built into our cell phone that we will rarely use.

Another concern that I have with convergent devices is that the majority of them seem to use up significant amount of energy from the battery. I have learned with my Instinct to limit the amount of music that I listen to or to use any of the auxiliary functions as the phone itself does not have adequate talk time and there is nothing that I hate more than having my cell phone die on me as this is my only telephone line.

I find it somewhat amusing that Apple has now included a camera in the new generation of the iPod Nano. I'm quite interested from a marketing perspective, why they felt that there would be benefit to adding a camera to the Nano. I would have thought that their market audience would already have cell phones with cameras built into them, so I'm not really sure how useful this will be, but I imagine that there are those out there have always wanted to take pictures with their iPod?!?
As is the case with too much of our technology today - too much sizzle - too little steak. I'd much rather that technology focus in on the true needs and to meet them rather than to give us cute bells and whistles that the marketeers have deemed will increase sales.

Quick tip for this issue: There are times when it may be difficult to remove an application from your computer as the files are already in use. Further, when encountering problems with the computer, it can be made more difficult to troubleshoot and resolve as there are so many programs loaded into memory. When restarting Windows, it is possible to start it in what is referred to as "Safe Mode". This is a special boot up mode where only the essential services are loaded into memory and it will not load all of the extraneous programs that had been added to the computer. To reboot your Windows computer in Safe Mode, restart the computer and shortly after it starts up, continually press the F8 key which will bring up a special boot mode. There are two options of interest - Safe Mode and Safe Mode with Networking. The latter can be used if you expect that you need access to the Internet to perhaps download an update to Windows. One note, when booting in Safe Mode, the monitor will display at a lower resolution and it will not look as you expect. Once you've finished making all of your changes, reboot normally and the display will revert to what you had before.

Term for this issue: GUI (pronounced GOO-ey). GUI stands for Graphical User Interface and defines how applications appear to the user. Typically, MS Windows (or Mac applications for that matter) will have a consistent GUI in order to reduce the learning curve of applications. The GUI will define how the application looks and behaves. It defines the menus and all elements on the screen in a consistent manner.

Website for this issue: http://news.cnet.com/webware/. Part of the CNET news family, Webware is a useful web based technology site with some good articles and tips on a variety of topics.

Technology As A Tool

Once again – I start off this month’s technology article with a quote.

Louis V. Gerstner once said

“Computers are magnificent tools for the realization of our dreams, but no machine can replace the human spark of spirit, compassion, love, and understanding.”

Gerstner was the CEO of IBM from 1993 until 2002. I would venture to say that his reign at IBM was during the years of sweeping technology changes.

You may recall that last month, I discussed the importance of maintaining humanity in our digital world. This month’s article – as promised – will be a forum to illustrate how the technology has served to enrich our lives.

Make no mistake, barring catastrophic events in our society, technology is here to stay. I am of the opinion that this technology can serve us – or master us – it is up to us to dictate the relationship between technology and our society.

First and foremost, technology is clearly a time saver. For fear of dating myself, I was born and raised in the “pre-computer age”. Yes – there were computers in the 50’s and 60’s (the ENIAC is one of the first – it was announced in 1946) but they were not integral parts of our society. Research for homework was done in libraries; banking was always done in front of a teller instead of in front of buttons and keys. Certainly, we lose the personal touch when using technology for these, but there can be no doubt that it saves us significant amounts of time.

Last year, I remember watching “A Christmas Carol”, my all-time favourite Christmas movie. I was very amused by the fact that Bob Cratchit and his homies had to very manually maintain the ledgers. Today, no company can exist without streamlined processes such as accounting. I think that every dollar that is not spent on administrative services is a dollar that can be spent on research and development or otherwise improving the products.

There can be no question that in today’s business world, each company must look for that tool that can give them the competitive edge. The use of technology enables a company to streamline their processes and therefore reduce costs – or perhaps its use is as a R&D tool and it allows the company to be more innovative. Regardless of how the technology is used in the workplace – it is clearly here to stay.

In the business world, I cannot imagine not being able to get technical support online. Certainly, there are companies that just don’t have the budget for this, but as a software development professional, my job would be severely impacted if I were not able to go to a specific support forum or to be able to Google and find others who have encountered similar problems to see their solution.

The impact of technology on our social networks cannot be argued. I won’t use this forum to discuss the downside of social interactions in the electronic world – as I touched on this in my previous article, but there are significant benefits to our social lives.

The first significant impact of technology on our social lives was with the introduction of bulletin board systems. The doors were open to find others with similar interests or mindsets. Even before the proliferation of the Internet, there were systems such as CompServe which filled this type of need. With the advent of instant messaging and networking sites such as MySpace, Facebook, Twitter, etc…, it has made personal communications much easier.

For me personally, I found that technology served me well when I was in the hospital in May and it will do so again when I am back in during October. The ability to send and receive text messages gave me comfort when I was feeling somewhat isolated. Being able to communicate with family and friends made my visit just a little easier to handle.

One of my favourite “uses” of technology relates to entertainment. I frequently listen to streaming radio online. In fact, I do not own a “conventional” radio. Most major radio station websites offer the feature to be able to listen online.

I do have friends who exclusively watch TV and movies online, but I certainly haven’t graduated to that yet! I do enjoy Youtube sometimes – especially as a way for me to try new music artists – it’s a great way to be able to listen to a new group and see if it was my proverbial cup of tea!

Certainly, I very much enjoy movies – and very often, I will visit IMDB.COM either before or after a movie to learn more about the movie or the people involved in the production of it.

In my mind, technology is like so many things in our lives – with balance, it is a good thing, but when it is used to excess then it begins to hinder our lives.

Advances in technology will not slow down. There will be new and better improved services. There will be many carrots dangled in front of our noses promising instant gratification or to give us access to information or services in ways that we’ve never seen – or possibly imagined – before. It’s up to us to determine how technology integrated into our lives and it is indeed our responsibility to ensure that technology remains a tool and not the master.

Quick tip for this issue –When turning on your computer, look carefully for a prompt for a key to be pressed to enter the computer’s setup and press this key. Among the information listed there is the type of hard disk that your computer has and its properties. Write this down and save it somewhere safe. That way – if your setup is lost and the computer no longer has a hard disk defined, you can run the setup again and re-enter the hard disk properties.

Term for this issue - last week, the term ROM (Read Only Memory) was introduced. Related to this term, this month’s term is RAM which stands for Random Access Memory. RAM differs from ROM in that RAM is temporary. Once the computer is turned off, then the contents of RAM are lost. RAM is an area of memory where programs such as Microsoft Word or Internet Explorer are run. When you create a MS Word document – it is created and maintained in RAM and this is why you need to save documents before turning off the computer as it is volatile memory.

Website for this issue – Volunteering has been part of my life for a number of years now. A very good website for someone who is interested in volunteering their time is http://volunteer.ca/en/en-home.

"Oh The Humanity!"

This phrase was uttered in 1937 by Herbert Morrison after the Hindenburg disaster. This morning, I once again contemplate how a phrase from many years ago has context in our age of electronics and virtual life.

It may seem like an odd thing for someone who is so immersed in technology to say, but sometimes I wonder if the technology has reduced our humanity to a large degree.

As a software developer, technology will always be in my life, and certainly, I would find it very hard to survive on a desert island without my technology, but I will admit there are times when I yearn for a simpler existence.

Certainly, technology is a wonderful thing and it was has drastically improved our lives in so many ways. I would lost without my google and being able to quickly look up whatever it is that I’m looking for, but by the same token, I feel that it can also lead to a need of instant gratification.

Growing up, I was a big Star Trek fan, and I always loved “The Borg”. For those of you that did not follow the series, “The Borg” was a race whose mission was to assimilate others and add their consciousness to the collective. Every member of this collective was permanently “attached” to each other’s thoughts and there was no individual in the collective.

To an extent, sometimes I wonder if sometimes our technology is similar in this respect. For many months, I belonged to Twitter, and I had my followers and those that I followed. I would bombard my subscribers with instant updates with how I was doing and what I was feeling at the moment.

My Twitter existence ended a few months ago. I was in the hospital for a week in May. Upon my release from my hospital, I happened to look back at my Twitter feed and I felt shocked that I had “tweeted” (made a Twitter post) while in the hospital. Do I really need to broadcast my health to virtual strangers? What benefit do I get from using Twitter other than feeling smug when someone new follows me? None that I can see and this is one of the reasons why I no longer tweet.

Another reason why I question this use and abuse of technology is because of a wonderful woman who came into my life a few months ago. She has made some valid points about the harm that technology can bring and to a large extent she’s right.

How many of us use Twitter and Facebook at work? Why does this technology compel us to think that we always need to be connected in some manner? Yes, text messaging is great, but do we always need to instantly get a hold of someone? Why does this replace actually picking up the phone and calling them? A case in point, the other day, and my daughter “needed” to go on to the computer to talk to her friend on MSN. She had used up her time for the evening and I did not allow her to. A big temper tantrum later, no success at being able to go online so she grumbled as she went into her room and picked up the phone and gave her friend a call. Was that really so hard?

Perhaps, I’ll be tarred and feathered for talking like this, but I really wonder if we are doing our children a disservice by having them always hooked up and virtual. Is it just me, or do kids not play outside as much now? Mostly, they seem to be online, either on an instant messenging medium of some type or perhaps playing with “friends” online. At least when you’re outside playing with them – you can actually see who they really are – not who they are portraying ourselves as.

I shudder to think at what life will be like for my grand-children. Will all of the good that technology brings to our lives (and there is plenty of good – some of which I’ll cover in the next article) outweigh the damage that it does to our social fabric?

I’ll be the first to admit that I have been guilty of using technology too much in the past. I’ve relied on it too much and there are plenty of times that I have forgotten about the human touch. I’ll even admit that sometimes I’m so lazy that I’ll text one of my kids as they are in a different room! I’ll never totally discard technology in my life. I’d make a lousy hermit living in the wilds and if I can’t order a pizza online then I’d be lost. But I am giving serious consideration to the quality of my life and asking myself if technology is helping or hurting it.

Where is the humanity now – indeed, a question worth asking.

And now – something new - _____ for this issue…

Quick tip for this issue – With Google, one can type in define: term to do a search on the Internet for the definition of the term.

Term for this issue – ROM stands for Read Only Memory. This is the memory that is permanent in your computer. The ROM consists of a series of programs that tell the computer how to be a computer. How to load Windows, how to display information on the monitor, how to read from a DVD or write to a CD.

Website for this issue – Internet Movie Database www.imdb.com is one of my favourite entertainment related websites. Virtually anything that you want to know about a movie can be found here.

The Never Ending Change of Technology

It was about 2,500 years ago that the Greek philosopher Heraclitus said

"Nothing endures but change"

which is often paraphrased as "The only constant is change". In today's technology, this quotation applies every bit as much as it did many centuries ago.

The personal computer was introduced to the world in 1981 and the world has never turned back. During the 28 years since the introduction of the IBM PC, the growth of technology has been exponential. As computers are now such a critical component of so many jobs, regardless of if you're a computer professional or just use a computer as a tool during your job, it becomes increasingly important to keep current with the technology. With the frequent releases of operating systems and the application software itself, the ability to be able to adapt to new versions of the software will only help your career growth.

When the IBM Personal Computer was first released, there were no hard drives. There were two floppy drives - one for the program and one for the data. Each floppy disk would hold 360 kilobytes of information. Contrast this to the hard drives today that routinely hold upwards of 200 gigabytes of information, an increase of roughly 500,000%. Already, the industry is developing hard drives with storage capacity expressed in terabytes (1,000gb+)

I have been using Microsoft Office for the past 15 years and as I write this article, I am reminded of the importance of being able to adapt. I've only been using MS Word 2007 for a few months now and this version of MS Word has a radically different user interface compared to previous versions. I remain frustrated as my familiar menu options have been removed, renamed or moved into different "ribbons", but this is just one more example of how as a professional software developer, it is paramount to my career growth to be able to adapt to this change and to take the time to re-learn this manifestation of Word.

Although for many of us, this ability to adapt to technology isn't explicitly part of our "job description", it remains a critical skill as the reality is that this radical change really is the nature of the beast and that for us to do our jobs, we need to be able to master the tools at our disposal.
This growth in technology is self-perpetuating. As hardware increases in speed and capacity, software vendors are able to take advantage of these advances and release new versions which require more hard disk space, memory and other resources. Users often complain that their computer's performance tends to decrease over time and this is one of the primary reasons. In turn, this sophistication increase in the software spurns the vendors to push the envelope so that the hardware is better equipped to support the evolving software.

Over the years, the use of computers is more sophisticated. Now, it is very common for someone who has a digital camera to want to be able to load their pictures on the computer and use photo-editing software to enhance or correct their images.
In addition, computers are becoming integrated entertainment devices and are used for streaming videos, listening to music and online radio stations or even watching DVDs. Where the TV was the focal point of the home entertainment, we now see a slow evolution towards the computer being the focus. Although in the foreseeable future, TV will reign supreme, there are an ever increasing number of people that do not own a TV. Perhaps they watch their TV shows online, or they may even have a digital tuner card in the PC to receive the broadcast.

The common denominator of these technologies are that they are very resource intensive and in order to receive adequate performance, high end components are a requirement. From the graphics card, processor speed, internal memory, hard disk speed, these are all factors in the performance of high end entertainment workstations and periodically upgrading or optimizing existing configurations is a necessity for these types of applications.

When purchasing a new system, it is important to not only look at your current requirements but also to look into the future to determine what needs you might need then. If you don't think that you will have a need in the future for high end graphics, gaming, streaming video or watching DVDs, it is likely that any higher end system will suffice for the next few years. However, if you do use any or all of these applications now, then one eye must be kept on the pocket book while the other looks to the future to ensure that your workstation continues to meet your needs for the next couple of years. There is nothing more frustrating than spending money on a new computer only to find that it no longer meets your needs after a year.
I wonder what Heraclitus would have thought if he had known that his quotation from so many years ago was so relevant today if not moreso.